ProbablyGood

Sometimes, investing more resources—whether it’s money, time, or effort—produces diminishing benefits. For instance, the first dollar you spend on something is often far more useful than the thousandth dollar. This concept, known as diminishing returns, plays a crucial role in evaluating the potential of various opportunities. Illustrating ‘diminishing returns’ Imagine … Read more

Leverage refers to the influence you have over how resources like time, money, and labor (particularly of others) are spent. The more of these resources you’re able to influence, the larger your leverage. Increasing your leverage in a promising cause area can be a great way to increase your impact. … Read more

When faced with uncertainty in decision-making, considering the expected value of our actions can be incredibly useful. Expected value represents the average outcome of all possible scenarios, weighted by their likelihood. In other words, it gives us an idea of what we can “expect on average” when taking a risk … Read more

Marginal impact refers to the additional difference your specific investment of time, money, or effort makes. Rather than focusing on the total impact of an organization or movement, it’s about recognizing how much your contribution adds to what’s already being done. This way, you can better decide where to direct … Read more

Some causes, organizations, and interventions receive far less funding, talent, political support, and public attention than others. These are considered “neglected.” Paying attention to neglectedness helps us spot unique opportunities for impact and ensures that our investments are more cost-effective. Causes that receive a lot of resources tend to face … Read more

Your comparative advantage refers to the extra advantage you have in a particular role in relation to the skills, strengths, and fitness of others who could do the job. Playing to your comparative advantage can help you to maximize your counterfactual impact, even if (perhaps surprisingly) it isn’t the role … Read more

Cause neutrality is the effort to remain impartial and open-minded when deciding which causes to prioritize. While true neutrality is difficult, supporters of cause neutrality aim to avoid getting attached to “pet causes” or limiting themselves to a narrow field. Instead, they focus on exploring a broad range of causes … Read more

Counterfactual impact is the difference you make by doing something versus what would have happened if you hadn’t done it. For example, if you help someone in need but simply replace someone else who would have done the same, your counterfactual impact is minimal because the person would have received … Read more

Career capital refers to the abilities and resources you accumulate—whether skills, credentials, connections, or savings—that allow you to do more with your career in the future. It’s an important consideration in long-term career planning, especially in the early stages of your career. Increasing future impact It’s fairly obvious that going … Read more